This year's budget relies on an extra $4 billion in state revenue - money that Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor says probably won't show up.

Taylor: "And what that means is that under our projections, there would be $2 billion worth of trigger reductions."

…including extra cuts to higher education and the elimination of several school days for K-through-12 students.  Taylor also projects a $13 billion deficit for the 2012-13 budget - less than half of last year's deficit but still a big hole to close.

Taylor: "Given the nature of the problem in 2012-13, yes, I think it would be unwise to make significant changes to the triggers."

The governor's Department of Finance will release a similar revenue forecast next month, then use the more favorable estimate to decide whether to pull the triggers.