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Poll: Prop 30 Up 10 (but Below 50%), Prop 38 Down 15

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(Sacramento, CA)
Thursday, November 1, 2012

The survey has Brown's measure, Proposition 30, leading by 10 points - but down from previous Field Polls and just short of the 50 percent it needs to pass.  Education advocate Molly Munger's tax measure, Prop 38, trails by 15 points.  Still, says Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo…

DiCamillo: "Prop 38 is pulling some voters away from 30.  We're measuring it at nine percent."

Yet DiCamillo says Prop 30's undecided voters could be more likely to vote yes in the end.  For example, more of them approve of the governor's job performance than disapprove; and are concerned about potential budget cuts if the measure fails.

DiCamillo: "So all these things indicate to me that the governor's measure is in fairly decent shape."

…while Munger's initiative has a much tougher road.


Prop 30: Yes 48%, No 38%, Undecided 14%

Prop 38: Yes 34%, No 49%, Undecided 17%

Voters who support both tax initiatives: 25%

Voters who support Prop 30 but oppose or are undecided on Prop 38: 24%

Voters who support Prop 38 but oppose or are undecided on Prop 30: 9%

Voters who oppose both tax initiatives: 29%

Undecided on both tax initiatives: 10%

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