A lot can change in a month. In September, a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California put Whitman and Brown in a dead heat. A survey conducted mid-October by the same group puts Brown eight points ahead. Likely voters prefer him 44 percent to Whitman's 36 percent. Mark Baldassare is with P-P-I-C. He says if Republicans are going to catch up by the election, they'll need to focus on more than just turnout:
"It's got to be really changing the minds of the undecideds that would make a difference at this point for Whitman, particularly the large number of independents who are undecided in this election."
Baldassare says 16 percent of likely voters are still
undecided. He says Brown gained ground among Democrats, women and
Latinos as well as independent voters during a period that was
marred by scandal and embarrassment for both campaigns.