Proposition 30 has taken a beating from anti-tax and small business groups on the right and a rival education tax initiative on the left.  Support from independents has dropped 10 points in the last month - and the measure is now polling below the critical 50 percent mark.  But the PPIC's Mark Baldassare says it still leads 48 percent to 44 percent.

Baldassare: "Voters are very divided along their partisan preferences.   So we think the turnout in this election clearly is going to be very key to whether it succeeds or fails."

Meanwhile, the poll shows education advocate Molly Munger's Prop 38 in much worse shape.  It has just 39 percent support and trails by 14 points.  The bitterly-contested Prop 32, which deals with union and corporate campaign contributions, polled exactly the same as Munger's measure.