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Well, here we are. It's New Year's Eve and with just hours to go
before the end of the year and the arrival of
the so-called fiscal cliff, Democrats and
Republicans in Washington are still trying to strike a deal that
heads off automatic increases in taxes, automatic deep spending
cuts in a variety of programs and the automatic expiration of some
jobless benefits.
As host David Greene said on Morning Edition, "we still
do not know if taxes will be going up as the ball in New York
City's Times Square goes down."
But, at least lawmakers haven't left things until the last
minute, David said (with his tongue firmly planted in his cheek).
After all, "we've got hours and hours before the last minute."
The two leaders at the center of the talks now are Vice
President Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.,
who will try to come up with some sort of deal before the Senate
reconvenes later this morning. If they can, and if such a deal is
passed by the Senate, then the House might also take it up
today.
As you can see, though, there are several big "ifs" in such a
scenario.
The good news, if there is any: As NPR's Scott Horsley pointed
out
on Morning Edition, going over the cliff
isn't "an instant catastrophe." The "$500 billion hit to the
economy" it would deliver is spread over a year and "many of those
effects could be reversed" by later legislation, he said.
The continued uncertainty, though,
is rattling the world's financial
markets.
We'll watch how this all plays out as the day continues.
Update at 12:40 p.m. ET. Obama To Speak:
The White House just alerted reporters that at 1:30
p.m. ET, "the president will deliver remarks about the fiscal cliff
at a White House event."
Update at 12:15 p.m. ET. Stocks Holding Their
Own:
"Stocks were on track to break a five-session
losing streak in the final trading day of 2012, even as the
year-end fiscal-cliff deadline looms," The Wall Street Journal
writes.
Why?
"We're seeing an underlying pressure for the market
to move up, based on fundamentals like reasonable valuations,"
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management told the
Journal. "That's offset by the fiscal cliff ... [but] there's also
a realization that going over the fiscal cliff wouldn't necessarily
be a disaster."
Update at 11:30 a.m. ET. Outlines Of A Deal On
Taxes?
The Wall Street Journal says:
"On taxes, one of the thorniest issues on the
table, the two sides appeared to be converging. President Barack
Obama has called for raising individual income-tax rates on family
income above $250,000. In the latest round of Senate talks,
Republicans proposed a $550,000 threshold, which Democrats moved to
$450,000, according to Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.)."
While Politico reports that:
"McConnell and Biden, who served in the Senate
together for 23 years, are closing in on an agreement that would
hike tax rates for families who earn more than $450,000, and
individuals who make more than $400,000, according to sources
familiar with talks. That would mark significant concessions for
both men, particularly for McConnell. President Barack Obama
campaigned on raising taxes for families who make more than
$250,000, but McConnell has long been dead-set against any tax
increases, warning they would jeopardize the economy."
As the Journal adds, though:
"Before noon on Monday, Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid (D., Nev.) said on the Senate floor that discussions
continue, but he also warned 'we really are running out of time,'
adding that 'There are a number of issues on which the two sides
are still apart.'
Update at 12:40 p.m. ET. Obama To
Speak:
The White House just alerted reporters that at 1:30 p.m. ET,
"the president will deliver remarks about the fiscal cliff at a
White House event."
Update at 12:15 p.m. ET. Stocks Holding Their
Own:
"Stocks were on track to break a five-session losing streak in
the final trading day of 2012, even as the year-end fiscal-cliff
deadline looms," The Wall Street Journal writes.
Why?
"We're seeing an underlying pressure for the market to move
up, based on fundamentals like reasonable valuations," Adrian Day,
president of Adrian Day Asset Management told the Journal. "That's
offset by the fiscal cliff ... [but] there's also a realization
that going over the fiscal cliff wouldn't necessarily be a
disaster."
Update at 11:30 a.m. ET. Outlines Of A Deal On
Taxes?
The Wall Street Journal says:
"On taxes, one of the thorniest issues on the table, the two
sides appeared to be converging. President Barack Obama has called
for raising individual income-tax rates on family income above
$250,000. In the latest round of Senate talks, Republicans proposed
a $550,000 threshold, which Democrats moved to $450,000, according
to Sen. Dick Durbin (D., Ill.)."
While Politico reports that:
"McConnell and Biden, who served in the Senate together for 23
years, are closing in on an agreement that would hike tax rates for
families who earn more than $450,000, and individuals who make more
than $400,000, according to sources familiar with talks. That would
mark significant concessions for both men, particularly for
McConnell. President Barack Obama campaigned on raising taxes for
families who make more than $250,000, but McConnell has long been
dead-set against any tax increases, warning they would jeopardize
the economy."
As the Journal adds, though:
"Before noon on Monday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D.,
Nev.) said on the Senate floor that discussions continue, but he
also warned 'we really are running out of time,' adding that 'There
are a number of issues on which the two sides are still apart.'
"
Meanwhile, here are some of the early
headlines:
- "After Fruitless Weekend, Congress Still Seeks Fiscal Deal." (
Morning Edition)
- "Fiscal Cliff-Hanger As Deal In Limbo." (
Politico)
- "Day Of Seesaw Talks Produces No Accord." (
The New York Times)
Update at 10:15 a.m. ET. Biden, McConnell Talked Late
And Early:
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told reporters
this morning that he and Vice President Biden spoke at 12:45 a.m.
ET before going to bed and again at 6:30 a.m. ET after rising. So
the negotiations continue.
Update at 8:40 a.m. ET. "Major Progress?"
Politico now reports that:
"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Vice
President Joe Biden engaged in furious overnight negotiations to
avert the fiscal cliff and made major progress toward a year-end
tax deal, giving sudden hope to high-stakes talks that had been on
the brink of collapse, according to sources familiar with the
discussion."
There have been several such moments when hopes were high, of
course.
