We didn't fall off a "fiscal cliff." And Proposition 30 will
prevent mid-year trigger cuts to the state budget.
Still, economist Jeff Michael says - don't expect a dramatic
upturn this year.
"2013 looks like the fourth year of kind of slow, sluggish
recovery in a row - roughly 2% growth in jobs and economic
Michael heads the Business Forecasting Center
at University of
the Pacific in Stockton. The center's latest forecast projects that
we won't start to see growth accelerate to 3% until next year and
near 4% in 2015.
Michael says two sectors will lead job growth: technology and
"Between now and 2016 we're going to see tens of thousands
of new construction jobs statewide as many as 250,000 construction
jobs over the next five years."
He attributes those new construction jobs to the improving
The report predicts California's unemployment rate won't drop
below 8% until the year 2015.
Right now, the Bay Area leads the rest of the state in
But Michael says starting next year, the fastest pace of job
growth will shift inland.
"We particularly expect Stockton-Sacramento to grow
somewhat faster than other areas in the valley that are farther
away from the urban centers."
Michael says the Sacramento and Stockton areas will see over
two-percent job growth driven primarily by: construction and the
improving real estate market.
Michael says Sacramento in particular stands to gain from
improving government budgets. State employee furloughs will
disappear for good and there's renewed optimism in the Capital
region despite the uncertain future of the Sacramento Kings.
"Our expectation is the franchise will be leaving. We
don't expect that to have a major economic impact on Sacramento.
It'll make it a little less fun."